近日，北京大学博雅特聘教授、汇丰商学院院长王鹏飞合作论文《总需求外部性与自我实现的违约周期》（“Aggregate demand externality and self-fulfilling default cycles”）在《货币经济学期刊》（Journal of Monetary Economics）（Volume 156, December 2025, 103827）发表。论文合作者为纽约大学经济系教授Jess Benhabib，以及清华大学经济管理学院长聘副教授董丰、2022级博士研究生徐臻阳。王鹏飞教授为通讯作者。

 论文简介 

Title：

Aggregate demand externality and self-fulfilling default cycles 

Author：

Jess Benhabib, Feng Dong, Pengfei Wang，Zhenyang Xu

Abstract：
Recurrent clustered episodes of corporate default are a long-standing puzzle that standard models driven by observable fundamentals struggle to explain. We develop a general equilibrium model where demand externality generates such default cycles endogenously through a self-fulfilling mechanism. In our framework, a decline in aggregate output reduces individual firm revenues and values, raising default risk. The subsequent exit of defaulting firms further depresses aggregate output, creating a positive feedback loop and pessimistic expectations about defaults can become self-fulfilling. This mechanism generates multiple equilibria and features endogenous, sentiment-driven default cycles. A global dynamic analysis using Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation reveals a rich set of dynamics, including periodic orbits, that are overlooked by standard local analysis. Our framework thus provides a microfounded explanation for business cycle patterns driven by internal economic forces, as emphasized by the empirical literature of endogenous business cycles.

标题： 

总需求外部性与自我实现的违约周期

中文摘要：

企业违约呈周期性集群爆发这一现象，是长期存在的理论谜题，依赖可观测基本面的标准模型难以对此作出解释。本文构建了一个一般均衡模型，其中需求外部性能通过自我实现机制内生地引发此类违约周期。在我们的框架中，总产出下降会降低个体企业的收入与价值，从而推高违约风险。违约企业的后续退出又会进一步抑制总产出，形成正向反馈循环——对违约的悲观预期可能通过这种机制自我实现。该机制会产生多重均衡，并呈现内生的、情绪驱动的违约周期特征。运用博格丹诺夫-塔肯斯分岔进行的全局动态分析揭示了一系列丰富的动态特征，包括被标准局部分析所忽视的周期轨道。因此，本文框架为实证研究强调的内生经济周期现象——即由内部经济力量驱动的商业周期模式——提供了微观理论基础。