近日，据JF官网显示，来自香港大学的林晨和Thomas Schmid、俄亥俄州立大学的Michael S. Weisbach，合作撰写的论文 "Climate Change, Demand Uncertainty, and Firms' Investments: Evidence from Planned Power Plants "（气候变化、需求不确定性与企业投资：来自规划发电厂的证据），在国际金融学顶刊 Journal of Finance 线上发表。

# 论文简介 #

Title：

Climate Change, Demand Uncertainty, and Firms' Investments: Evidence from Planned Power Plants 

Author：

Chen Lin, Thomas Schmid, Michael S. Weisbach

Abstract：
How does demand uncertainty affect firms' investment decisions? We examine this question in the context of electricity-producing firms' planned investments in new power plants. We measure uncertainty about future electricity demand using plausibly exogenous variation in temperature projections across scientific climate models. The results show that uncertainty increases investment in power plants with flexible production technologies, while reducing investment in less flexible technologies. Overall, the net effect of uncertainty on investment is positive when firms have access to flexible investment opportunities. These findings are consistent with models in which production flexibility shapes the investment response to demand uncertainty.

标题： 

气候变化、需求不确定性与企业投资：来自规划发电厂的证据

中文摘要：

需求不确定性如何影响企业的投资决策？我们在电力生产企业计划投资新建发电厂的背景下研究这一问题。我们利用科学气候模型中温度预测的看似外生的变动来衡量未来电力需求的不确定性。结果表明，不确定性增加了企业对采用灵活生产技术的发电厂的投资，同时减少了对灵活性较低技术的投资。总体而言，当企业拥有灵活的投资机会时，不确定性对投资的净影响为正。这些发现与生产灵活性塑造投资对需求不确定性响应的模型相一致。